Sunday, November 29, 2009
This study used a linear regression analysis with the OLS method is used to model the partial adjustment model or (Partial Ad This study used a linear
. To obtain a valid estimate of statistical testing and testing of classical assumptions. Includes statistical test t test, F test and the test R2. The results of t test showed that the only variable that has income nasioanal significant influence on the current account in Indonesia. Test F shows that the joint - the same independent variables have a significant effect on the current account in Indonesia. F test value of 38.201. R2 tests showed that 0.941 for the dependent variables affect the dependent variable for the remaining 94.1% 5.9% influenced by other variables outside the model. Testing classical assumptions include multikolinieritas, Autokorelasi and Heteroskedastisitas. There are 2 variables that occur multikolieniritas symptoms of variable rate and SBI. As for Heteroskedastisitas and autokorelasi show that qualify in the test and no symptoms, so this research be used for decision making. Interpretation of their results - each regression coefficient values obtained the results that only the national income has a negative impact on the current account in Indonesia. For variable rate, SBI and SIBOR not significantly affect the current account in Indonesia. INTRODUCTION A. Problem Background of Indonesia as the country adopted an open economic system, state and development of foreign trade and balance of international payments can not be separated from the things that are and will take place in the global economic arena. Situation and the general economic trend will certainly affect the economy of Indonesia. A sluggish world economy would also melesukan trade among countries in the world, including Indonesia. Economic relations with abroad is part of a broad international relations, which includes also political relations, military, education and culture. For developing countries like Indonesia, especially with an open economic system, enabling economic relations with abroad occurs. Almost every day in the newspapers we read how the economic relations with abroad both bilaterally and multilaterally that happens (Widodo, 1990: 81). Of course, economic relations with these foreign influences on domestic economy. There was a bad influence, but there are also beneficial effects. International economic relations concerning ransaksi goods, services, capital, monetary, and all payment instruments affect the domestic economy. Studies on the influence of international economic relations on the domestic economy will be recorded in the balance of payments by way of certain accounting as defined by the IMF (International Monetary Fund) (Widodo, 1990: 81). In various writings, economic studies of foreign economic relations based on a lot of balance of payments. Then the balance of payments can be analyzed things menyagkut trade in goods (exports-imports), transaction services, exchange rate, the value of debt and repayment obligations, transactions running deficits, foreign exchange reserves, the ratio of international trade. In other words, the balance of payments indicators will be related to issues of national production, the government budget, monetary and international payment instruments (Widodo, 1990: 81). In the year 2000 the overall balance of payments showed Indonesia was encouraging developments. This is indicated by the improved performance of non-oil exports and rising oil and gas export revenues due to higher oil herga in international markets. On the other hand, considering the import content of export goods to produce is still high enough performance increase non-oil exports has also given impetus to increased non-oil imports, especially in the form of raw and auxiliary materials. Increased imports are also in line with the increased economic activity in the country. Meanwhile, the deficit in services transactions also experienced an increase caused by high interest payments on foreign debt, increasing oil revenue sharing payments to contractors, as well as increased transportation costs associated with import activities. On the whole transaction run in the year the report still shows a surplus even higher than the previous year. In terms of capital transactions, reduction in capital income and government deficits are still high traffic in private capital, has led to capital transactions in the year the report is still in deficit. With these developments in the overall balance of payments surplus in 2000 for $ 5.0 billion that foreign exchange reserves position at the end of 2000 reached $ 29.3 billion, equivalent to 6.3 months of import requirements and foreign debt payments pemerintah.Dalam reporting period, transaction running record surplus of $ 7.7 billion, up 33.0% compared with a surplus in the previous year's $ 5.8 billion. Walk the transaction surplus came mainly from the trade balance surplus reached $ 25.1 billion. The increase in the trade balance surplus is mainly due to sharp increase in revenues from oil and gas sector as a result of high oil prices in international markets. On the other hand, the trade balance surplus in non-oil sector reached $ 14.9 billion, is relatively fixed compared with the previous year. Meanwhile, the balance of services recorded a deficit of $ 17.4
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